Ten years after the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and citizens sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially tense and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a group called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the absence of informed dialogue, stated the journalist.
"Many are for or against the notion but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in universities but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage even with the fundamentals. To illustrate, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, neither author supports unification or the current situation. Each writes two pieces that strive for impartiality in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and social data, previous instances and governmental frameworks.
Debates cover flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there has not yet occurred a debate," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the idea that there could be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters say they support unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the plan from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride considers a referendum in his generation is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and somebody will eventually be defeated but all factions has possesses something to gain from the other's arguments."
Call for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, said O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
